Regime change by force is a hard job. You have to send troops and weapons halfway across the world to clear out military leaders. Neighbors don’t understand the opportunity others envision from regime change.
It’s understandable that regime change by color revolution operation is preferable. Fund a few people to instigate chaos, make accusations, synchronize the media attack, gather a crowd, and then flush out the ruler. A new ruler curated by the funders of revolution will become the replacement, and rule obedient to everything the funders request.
Force requires occupying, at which point it is wise to nominally run the new regime with ethnic representatives astroturfed to make the regime seem legitimate. Costs will be high, and everyone knows superpowers are good for whatever bill comes due. Accordingly, budget requests will be mostly scams for building projects never built, infrastructure never installed, and labor costs for many ghost workers, police, and soldiers that only exist on paper.
Everyone at every level is in on the scam. The leaders know the new regime will fail, and have a cushy backup career in another nation to which they can flee when collapse is imminent. Other leaders have been exfiltrating huge sums to a neighboring country the whole time and were planning for that exit from the beginning. Everyone trusted to report figures gets to game them to maximize their take as part of a big money funneling operation.
All the money in the world couldn’t make this work, just like every first world scam (equality, diversity, feminism, BLM, LGBT, etc). Trillions can be spent enforcing laws, mandating school curriculum to indoctrinate youth, getting media to repeat the new values, and all that is actually built is a giant illusion. Nothing is changed, only temporary compliance from people brow-beaten to repeat what their rulers mandate be said. Any alternative is deemed misinformation and subject to de-personing.
No one believes any of the progressive statements they are coerced to proclaim allegiance to. They just say they support them to be social and avoid punishment. Meanwhile, worthwhile objectives have lost attention and funding swallowed up by the social scams of the day that made a few rich with books, lectures, compliance classes, and specialized HR positions for phony concerns.
Coercion is a type of expensive debt. At first there is a flush of cash that feels like wealth. You have the result you want in hand. However, the interest payments are brutal. People gradually come to realize the claims are bunk and the leaders are liars running grift. Institutions lose credibility and respect. Advanced societies come to a halt, crumbling apart because they were hollowed out and papered over with fake images of durability.
The essential qualities previously abundant during the creation of civilization have been lost, and those standing in place are incompetents trying to fake their way through things they don’t understand, powered by desire, ego, and hope that the system will somehow run itself well without the need for humans suited for the task.
The military operation becomes a societal remake operation. This has immediate friction when most of the people are illiterate and cannot be persuaded by conventional propaganda techniques to tell people what to think. Strangely, the locals do not seem in dire need of more gay, lesbian, bisexual, transsexual, diversity, and other gifts the leadership of failing nations wish to impose.
The superpower ruling class planned this misadventure knowing it would incur costs, but not to them personally. Even their misadventures are personally profitable, giving them many years to manage and often a foothold for additional misadventures in the region. They dare to call themselves experts, not from their lack of success in every attempt they’ve ever made, but from merely being bogged down for so long in the region. Endless failure and lack of solutions do not end their career, but rather create new problems for their magic.
Soldiers aren’t inclined to disobey, allowing experts to create policy that is enforced upon generals all the way down to infantry. Those at the top lie to the public about how things are going and offer an optimistic picture about the prospects of success. Their real goal is to advance their careers, earn money, and transfer out before the reality of the situation is discovered.
Those joining the conflict later are playing a game of musical chairs well in progress. It will come to an end soon, forcing them to calculate an exit before the public realizes the situation, or blaming others when the depth of their misrepresentation is exposed.
Working for a regime change operation calls the purpose of a job into question. You see the reality of the situation and how the situation is blatantly misrepresented to the public. Are you there to obey as a paid laborer facilitating a scheme for the profit of others? Or do you recognize the opportunity for lawless robbery and take everything you can while the vault doors remain open and unguarded?
Even if every soldier was replaced by a robot fighter and all vehicles were drones operated from afar, the costs of such warfare and the lack of victory would would eventually lead to pulling out. The math shows it is unsustainable from the beginning, not to mention without a way to attain victory. Those who studied the situation and went in did so not because they were stupid, but because they calculated personal advantage despite the huge cost pushed upon the public and eventual loss. They’ll just say they did the best they could and pass the blame.
Drawing the superpower into an unwinnable conflict for prolonged bleeding and then aligning individualistic dishonest forces to extract profit from the dying whale was exactly the point. Bin Laden explained his strategy and there were still schemers who signed up the nation to suffer an expensive loss so they could earn money at tremendous public expense.